Engineering Electoral Systems, Statistical Paradoxes in Representing Voter's Will
Engineering Palestinian Electoral System as an Example, (Descriptive, Analytical, Comparative study – Statistical Perspective)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.68825/18s4rn41Keywords:
Electoral system engineering, electoral systems, single-member system, party list system, statistical analysis, statistical paradoxesAbstract
The research problem lies in the existence of an infinite number of frameworks used in engineering and constructing a model electoral system in any country. These frameworks include combinations and structures that combine the nature of the electoral system, its various divisions and forms, the voting methods employed, the methods of counting votes that translate into parliamentary seats, and other more complex specifications and conditions. The ultimate goal is to arrive at the best electoral system that suits, or should suit, the needs of society and the prevailing political, social, and economic conditions. Furthermore, it must achieve the fundamental objective of equality among voters, equality among candidates, and genuine representation of the voters' will.
Despite the prevalence of certain electoral systems in most democratic countries worldwide, a common characteristic among them is their frequent and often contradictory changes to these systems, sometimes even switching between two different systems multiple times. This underscores the continued uncertainty and confusion surrounding the engineering and construction of a truly ideal electoral system, even among developed nations, and even in repeated practical application. This is often attributed to statistical discrepancies in election results and the failure of the electoral system to genuinely represent the will of the voters at the ballot box, such as a party winning fewer seats despite receiving a larger number of votes.
This research sheds light on the methods of electoral system engineering, beginning with a study and analysis of the democratic foundations and principles that the electoral system aims to uphold, and the prevailing political, social, and economic factors in society that influence the engineering of the electoral system. It then examines the classifications and forms of different electoral systems, and the methods of comparison and selection among them. Finally, it studies and analyzes voting methods in elections and the mathematical methods used to calculate voters' ballots and convert them into parliamentary seats, and integrates these methods with different forms of electoral systems.
This research also includes a case study of the Palestinian electoral system as a model, examining the Palestinian legislature's experience in Engineering the electoral system. This is achieved through an analysis of the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, held under Law No. (9) of 2005 concerning elections, and by conducting advanced statistical analyses of the election results. The study explores the presence of statistical Paradoxes and their causes, and then examines the legislature's success in re-engineering the electoral system through Decree-Law No. (1) of 2007 concerning elections and its amendments. This re-engineering aimed to address these statistical anomalies by modifying the electoral system and changing the voting method.
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